Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination: Implications for the Middle East

Ismail Haniyeh, the Political Chief of Hamas, was killed by an airstrike, claimed to be Israel’s attempt, at his residency in Tehran while he was visiting Iran for the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The tragic episode happened just a day after Hezbollah’s top commander, Fuad Shukr, was killed in a targeted Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon. Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination will have the potential risks of an all-out war in the Middle Eastern region and its impact on the ongoing negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza.

Ismail Haniyeh has taken up the leadership position as Chief of Hamas since 2017 and has been the face of Hamas, serving in international diplomacy efforts and managing the group’s finances and having a strong role in carrying out negotiations over the war in Gaza. Hamas and Hezbollah, along with the Houthis in Yemen and many other Shi’ite Muslim armed groups in Syria and Iraq, are a part of the “Axis of Resistance,” an Iranian-led informal military coalition comprising various political factions spread across the Middle East and beyond that collaborated at opposing US and Israel’s influence in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US was neither “aware” nor “involved” in Ismeal Haniyeh’s killing. Additionally, Defense Chief Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would defend Israel in the event of any attack. Meanwhile, Japan and Russia warned about the escalation to an all-out war in the region.

However, the news of Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination has widened the risks of potential escalation while creating uncertainty for the ongoing war in Gaza along with contributing to more tense relations between Iran and Israel. Iran has blamed Israel for this attempt, but Israel has not officially claimed itself to be responsible for the killing held in Tehran, yet. Ismail Haniyeh’s demise seems an extension of Israel’s objectives set up after the October 7 Hamas attack, considering the the statement given by Israeli Prime Minister, Netan Yahu, “if you want peace, destroy Hamas. If you want security, destroy Hamas. If you want a future for Israel, the Palestinians, the Middle East, destroy Hamas.” It can be analyzed through this statemenhat these assassinations of top leadership positions are an execution of the already laid out plan by Netanyahu. Haniyeh’s death is another latest effort by Israel to take revenge on Hamas for its October 7 attack by hitting the group’s leadership roles.

Regional and global responses to the assassination

The execution of the Hamas Political Chief has elicited variety of responses, across the globe. With Iran vowing to incur “severe punishment” against Israel while calling Israel a “criminal Zionist regime.” Adding to it, Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Israel has paved the way for which it will be punished now. While offering condolences to Haniyeh’s family and Hamas, Khamenei emphasized that “we consider it our duty to avenge his blood.” Moreover, a statement from reformist President Pezeshkian posted on Twitter, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its territorial integrity, honor, pride, and dignity, and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly action.”

Hamas is deeply grieved by Ismail Haniyeh’s assasination, whose political and diplomatic relations were the backbone of the group. Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior official of Hamas, said that this assassination attempt by Israel will “fail to achieve its objective,” emphasizing the group’s firm stance while having endured many sacrifices.

Palestinian authorities condemned the murder, and the Palestinian Foreign Ministry called the act by Israel a “cowardly act and a dangerous development.” Meanwhile, Turkey also decried the killing of Haniyeh, declaring it a “heinous assassination.” The Turkish Foreign Ministry described the fragility of the situation, stating “this attack aims to spread the Gaza war to regional dimension.” Qatar, too, censured the assassination and asserted that mediation efforts are never one-sided; while iterating on Haniyeh’s diplomatic efforts, it posted on X, “How could mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US was neither “aware” nor “involved” in Ismeal Haniyeh’s killing. Additionally, Defense Chief Lloyd Austin said the U.S. would defend Israel in the event of any attack. Meanwhile, Japan and Russia warned about the escalation to an all-out war in the region.

Implications for the Middle East

The assassination of Hamas Political Chief, Ismail Haniyeh, can alter the Middle East’s regional dynamics and global peace and stability, indulging the region into an escalated conflict. While Haniyeh’s killing has been a victory for Israel, however, for Iran, the precision of the airstrike aimed Ismail Haniyeh’s assasination has raised concerns regarding Iran’s weak security apparatus. This assassination attempt in a foreign country comes under direct violation of Article- 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits states from the threat or use of force against any sovereign state.

The Looming Threat of Poliovirus in Gaza

Moreover, Iran has declared that it will inflict “harsh punishment” on Israel as retribution for Haniyeh’s inhumane killing, bringing into play the country’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This killing operation of Haniyeh is laid out in Tehran, Iran’s capital city. Iran claims this to be backed by Israel, thus raising concerns about Iran’s security breach and highlighting Israel’s capability and reach. In addition, it has raised high hopes over how the newly elected reformist-backed President of Iran will respond to this breach of Iran’s sovereignty and the killing of a high-profile official on its soil.

Since the onset of the war in Gaza, Iran and Israel have already been involved in proxy wars and engaged in clandestine activities aimed at incurring damage to each other. Nevertheless, the situation has the potential to escalate further, prompting intense military activities and might precipitate retaliatory strikes from Iranian-backed proxy groups across the region, notably Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assasination will further complicate the peace negotiations over Gaza, with Haniyeh, a key figure, participating in negotiations over the exchange of hostages and chances of a ceasefire.

In the wake of his death, these negotiations between Hamas and Israel seem to be failing.The situation could lead to a more severe stance in ceasefire negotiations and would result in heightened military operations by Hamas and its allies. Ismail Haniyeh’s assasination has led to the failure of peace talks over Gaza and is unlikely to have any effect on the distressing situation in Gaza. However, his death can plunge the region into an uncertain situation, having been involved in the war at a broader level and with high intensity. Therefore, as the region teeters on the brink of an all-out- war, the response from Iran and its allies within the Axis of Resistance will shape the future within the region. The efforts by international actors in mediating the conflict and preventing escalation remain crucial and are a need of the hour.